Worse than Predicted

When I first read the 2007 IPCC reports, as scary as they were, I was confused by how they seemed to downplay a lot of the threats. I knew that because of pressure from certain countries (U.S., China, Saudi Arabia were named in one article) they reduced the certainty level of some of their predictions. But I had been reading about studies that made things seem quite a bit worse than what was in the IPCC summaries. For example, the IPCC report said oceans would not rise much at all by 2100, but I was reading things that made it seem at least possible that they would rise much more by then. I read later that it takes a few years for new information to make it into those reports, so the reason was partly that they were a few years out of date. They also did not take feedback (or things like the lubricating effects of water at the bottom of the ice) into account in their models for melting ice. Not good when the IPCC reports are what governments are supposed to base their policies on. But they didn’t know how to quantify those things, so it’s understandable they didn’t want to include them in their models. The problem is that it made it easier for politicians to think they could delay action.

Periodically, since I started reading global warming and climate change news articles, an article would appear saying that some aspect of the problem was progressing faster than scientists expected. In 2007 I read so many articles like this that I suspected that some sort of feedback was already happening. In early 2008 I read that James Hansen had said the albedo feedback was already happening. Other scientists reported that the oceans might not be absorbing as much CO2 as they used to, another feedback effect. Forest fires were increasing because of global warming, which is another feedback. Most disturbingly, there were reports from Russia and Alaska that melting permafrost was already releasing methane and CO2, and even that some of the methane frozen at the bottom of the shallow ocean near Russia was being released. This was the most dangerous type of feedback that I had heard about, so I was not happy to hear that it might already be happening, even on a relatively small scale.

The article below talks about some of these things. It’s nice to hear someone from the IPCC finally admitting they were so far off. But we can’t wait for the next IPCC report, which comes out in 2014. Keep the pressure on our governments to solve this problem before it is too late.

http://www.truthout.org/021609M#comment-40896

Addendum 2/28/2009: Here is another story about both poles melting faster than expected. "There's some people who fear that this is the first signs of an incipient collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.... If the West Antarctica sheet collapses, then we're looking at a sea level rise of between 1 meter and 1.5 meters (3 feet, 4 inches to nearly 5 feet)."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29386865/

It's not just that things are warming faster than predicted. The IPCC is now saying that the earth won't have to warm up as much as thought in order to cause "serious consequences". For example, "increases in drought, heat waves and floods are projected in many regions and would have adverse impacts, including increased water stress, wildfire frequency and flood risks."

Addendum 3/15/2009: Here is yet another article where IPCC scientists are saying that their latest (2007) report underestimated the global warming threat. That report predicted the oceans would rise 7 to 23 inches by 2100. The new “best estimate” is 3.25 feet or about 1.7 times the old highest estimate, and that is IF we manage to reduce GHG emissions dramatically. The new highest estimate is 190 centimeters, or about 6 feet 3 inches. Even the old estimates would have been “enough to wipe out several small island nations and wreak havoc for tens of millions living in low-lying deltas”. A sea level rise of 1-2 meters would be “an absolute catastrophe” for China. But it would also be devastating to almost every coastal area, and especially for low-lying places like New Orleans, Bangladesh, The Netherlands, and so on:

http://dsc.discovery.com/news/2009/03/10/climate-sea-level.html

Addendum 8/21/2009: Here is another article (from 7/24/09) that talks about how global warming is worse than scientists thought, specifically in regards to the poles:

http://www.newsweek.com/id/208164

Almost as scary as the science in the article are most of the comments that I saw posted for it. It is amazing how confused so many people are about the science. Actually, that is not amazing, what is amazing is how passionately they defend their ignorant beliefs. The fossil fuels industry, in collaboration with conservatives, have done an amazing job confusing people.